Rapid Forecasting Templates
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Forecasting is very frequently completed in an environment of tight budgets and tighter time constraints. Fitall & Associates has developed a series of templates to support this process. The key benefits of a template approach are:
- Using a template shortens the time taken to get started
- Flexible inputs allow for almost any different kind of market circumstance
- Multiple product applications across the entire development life-cycle
- Simple forecasts for a single product through to multi-class, multi-product forecasts
- Full range of assumptions as well as the ability to include all available data
- Rapid scenario building to allow assessments of many "what ifs"
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In order to be truly flexible a template needs to be able to include a wide variety of variables. Each variable must start with a null value that has no effect so that building a rapid forecast using very few variables is still possible.
The Fitall & Associates templates vary for each client, but a typical input is shown to the right.
- Product definitions allows the user to input class and product names
- Attributes input contains a weighted atttribute scoring system for relative product profiles
- Pricing allows for manual input or annualized increases from a base
- Duration of therapy permits usage for acute, chronic or intermittent diseases
- Compliance describes the proportion of prescribed drug actually consumed
- Persistence is the proportion of patients still taking medication at a given time after first treatment
- Market coverage & launch are inputs for launch dates, order of entry, market awareness
- Order of Entry & combo factors cover the effect of order of entry as well as allowing for patients to be taking more than one medication
- Sensitivity controls modify the workings of the model to reflect actual market data
- patients allows for epidemiology or market data to be entered to define market size
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| Input section of a typical template |
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In the Fitall & Associates forecasting templates the variables described above interact in ways that reflect actual market behavior to create a model of the market based on the best knowledge of the client. This is augmented by our internal expertise and experience gained from completing forecasts in all types of disease categories over the past 20 years.
For a more detailed demonstration of our forecasting template capabilities, please call or email.
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